> How can we design our own way forward to adequacy in Electricity Power supply ?
> Absolutely , we can.
> Background:
> Nigeria currently produces 6,000mw of electricity with only 4,600 mw transmitted through distribution companies into our homes.
> Do note that electricity power penetration in Nigeria is just about 50% (NERC - December 2014).
> Nigeria's need is nearer 20,000mw for adequacy - I am made to understand that you need to factor in another 25% as redundancy - ie 5,000mw.
> Because need for electricty grows with per capita income , we will need to keep raising this capacy by 20% every 3 to 4 years. This is why you hear this African country has 24 HR poweer supply today only to hear 3 years down the line that power cuts have creeped in again.
> We produce 80% of our electric power from huge thermal stations with 20% coming from hydro. These thermal plants are scattered across Nigeria from East to West to North. Gas pipelines are linked into them from the delta. Now you see why you hear stories about vandalism stalling our effort at electric power supply adequacy.
> The generation and distribution assets have been sold to private sector with government keeping a minority shareholding. The transmission company is in the hands of a contract Manager - Monitoba Co of Canada - they have their contract extended by 12 months until June 2016.
> Above scenario is fraught with challenges - this implies it will be a while before we achieve sufficiency in power supply in Nigeria. It could take over next ten years unless we do something different - ie design a short to immediate plan , then a medium to longer term plan.
> Here is my plan:
> Immediate to Short term:
> - Channel 80% of the available power from the national grid to the 9 industrial states - Lagos Ogun , Abia , Anambra , Rivers , Delta , Kaduna , Kano , FCT (govt) . The remaining 20% is distributed to the remaining 28 states. This ensures these key states get at least 12 hours of power supply per day. This is on a consistent basis - not the current situation where I enjoy 16HRs for 3 days and black out for 5 days!!
> - Large organisations - manufacturing industries ( consuming up to 2mw) are advised to disconnect from the GRID while we ensure they receive gas needed to power their own power plants. These guys can produce power at affordable rates.
> - Distribution companies inform users their own schedule - residential areas are supplied at night - 630pm to 630am. Industrial(medium size) and office areas are fed during the day.
> - Push for embedded power generation system in estates , SME clusters - 1 power generator/ supplier caters to 1000 homes and SMEs. This will be back up to municipal power in the select 9 states and other states. We can potentially see 1000 new companies springing up through this.
> The Distribution companies can register companies based on agreed revenue sharing formula for this.
> - Encourage mix of power sources (solar , diesel , Gas generators etc) to be able to feed the villages and semi urban areas with largely solar power systems. Then have the embedded power companies provide power to these villages at desired and specific times eg festive seasons etc. This can be done with a mobile generatimg set. This should be made a clear responsibility of state governments.
> Above plan hold us up until we are able to generate enough power to deliver consistent uptime for Nigeria.
> Medium to Long term:
> Privatise the transmission system - on Regional/sttae basis.
> - Support the private investors to ramp up capacity over the next 6 years - the system should move from huge mega stations to mini power stations across local governments of Nigeria. Gradually phase the system to localised transmission system rather than national system.
> Dear friends - this formula will need some looking at - achieving self sufficiency in power supply is a cumbersome project. It takes time and even maintaining power supply adequacy also takes some doing. We need to hear up for it!!!
> Let me have your views!!
This is very informative. The best analysis I have read on power.
ReplyDeleteEssentially, let's stop fooling ourselves with the same grandoise plan - national power distribution - we don't have the capacity to achieve it.
The bit on residential areas being given power at night is amazing. This can be extended to give them power morning and night over the weekend since offices will be closed.
I agree embeded captive power should be under the supervision of local government. Meaning they should come up with the plan, the clusters where such investments are needed and open it up via an RFP.
Fantastic piece.