Tuesday, 26 May 2015

Nigeria's debt situation $63b.

Dear friends,
We must have followed the raging discourse over our debt portfolio!!

$63 billion - includes foreign, local debts.

This is against a $520b economy. If we do the math.. It's about 12% of our GDP!!

Let's simplify this a bit ... If I am worth N520 and my total debt is N63; Am I really in such deep 'hole' as some of our analysts are making us believe? I'm struggling to understand why debt has become a sin!! Only in my dear country.

From where I see this, we are not in a terrible situation like some analysts want to posit. Infact, we have an opportunity to change this narrative.

My view is that we should raise our debt to GDP ratio to 50% over next two years by borrowing the sum of $250b and channeling same to fix the basics which we do need to fix to continue to maintain our leadership position in Africa. What we should bother about is our levels of productivity that will impact our earning ability to repay the loans over time.

The sectors?
- healthcare
- education - this is crucial to becoming a great nation - if we educated our people better, they become more productive, the contribute more to our economy!!
- civil service reforms - they are too poorly paid to be any productive - they probably take another 500% illegally if you know what I mean.
- transportation - Road and Rail networks (aligning with private sector)
- power (of course support to private sector)

I am advocating we move the conversation away from such mundane issues that dominate our airwaves at the moment!!!

It is very deceitful and sickening..

High regards.

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